The climate of the early Pliocene, from 3 to 5 million years ago, could hold clues about the future of our climate in the era of global warming. In those days, two key factors in global warming — the amount of sunlight hitting the Earth and the concentration of carbon dioxide — were about the same as they are today, but the average global temperature was warmer by about 3 degrees Celsius and sea levels were about 25 meters higher.
According to a review study, the difference appears to be the permanence of El Niño during the early Pliocene, which led to a higher amount of moisture in the atmosphere. Water vapor is a major greenhouse gas, and the increased levels of water vapor also reduced the type of clouds that reflect sunlight back into space.
Another difference between the early Pliocene and the current long-term climate was the lack of ice ages in the Pliocene. The 100,000-year icy periods separated by 10,000-year interglacial periods, one of which we enjoy at the moment, are a feature of our cooler climate.
If today’s global warming boosts temperatures and precipitation near the poles, it could push the temperature boundary in the tropical oceans to lower depths. This could dramatically reduce the sensitivity of the climate to changes in the planet’s orbit, and usher in a Pliocene-like climate free of ice ages.